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武力衝突を予測する: 期待を調整する時間?
Lars-Erik Cederman1, Nils B Weidmann2
1ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. lcederman@ethz.ch nils.weidmann@uni-konstanz.de.
まとめ
地震のような自然災害に比べ 政治的な暴力を予測するのは 独特の課題です このエッセイは現実的な期待を明確にし,政治的暴力の予測の分野における重要な進歩を強調しています.
科学分野:
- 政治科学
- 紛争に関する研究
- 予測する
背景:
- 政治的暴力を予測するのは複雑で 地震のような自然災害を予測することに 比較されることがあります
- 政治的暴力が予測可能であるという誤解は広まっている.
研究 の 目的:
- 政治的暴力の予測に伴う課題を紹介する.
- 暴力の予測における現実的な期待と非現実的な期待を区別する.
- 政治的暴力の予測の分野での進歩を紹介するためです
主な方法:
- 概念分析と文献レビュー
- 予測方法の比較分析 (政治的暴力と自然災害)
主要な成果:
- 政治的暴力の予測は 人間の活動や複雑な社会政治的要因による 自然現象の予測とは異なります
- 予測の精度と範囲を向上させ,重要な方法論的進歩がなされた.
結論:
- 完全な予測は難しいが 政治的暴力を理解し 予測する上で 相当な進歩が 達成されている.
- この分野を発展させるには 神話を解明し 現実的な目標を明確にすることが重要です

