予測トーナメントを通じて政策討論に確率判断を導入する
Philip E Tetlock1, Barbara A Mellers2, J Peter Scoblic3
1Department of Psychology, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA 19104, USA. tetlock@wharton.upenn.edu.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 4, 2017
まとめ
政治的予測のトーナメントは 確率の見積もりを用いて 予測の精度を向上させます この構造化されたコンテストは議論を脱極化し 政策上の紛争を解決する助けにもなります
科学分野:
- 政治科学
- 意思決定科学
- 諜報調査
背景:
- 政治的な議論では 曖昧な言葉のせいで 正確な予測が欠けていて 政策の評価と改善を妨げています
- 予測の正確さは 効果的な政策立案と 複雑な政治情勢の理解に不可欠です
研究 の 目的:
- 予測の精度を向上させるための 構造化された予測トーナメントを調査する.
- 政策紛争解決の改善と政治的議論の脱極化におけるトーナメントの可能性を調査する.
主な方法:
- 予測方法を分析するために,アメリカ情報機関によって後援されたトーナメントが使用されました.
- この研究は,業績と意思決定に対する説明責任の影響に関する文献を参考にした.
主要な成果:
- 予報者は,ユニークなイベントを含む予測を行うために,確率の見積もりを改善したことを示しました.
- トーナメントは予測における知識生成の有効なツールであることが判明しました.
結論:
- 構造化された予測トーナメントは,予測の精度を高め,貴重な知識を生成するための実用的な方法を提供します.
- トーナメントは政治的議論を脱極化し,説明責任を通じて政策の解決を促進するメカニズムとして有望です.
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