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社会システムにおける予測と説明
Jake M Hofman1, Amit Sharma1, Duncan J Watts1
1Microsoft Research, 641 Avenue of the Americas, 7th Floor, New York, NY 10003, USA. jmh@microsoft.com amshar@microsoft.com duncan@microsoft.com.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|February 4, 2017
まとめ
社会科学は 予測を優先する計算手法に 移行しています これは評価の慣行を標準化し,複雑なシステムの理論的限界を理解し,予測の正確性と解釈性を堅実な研究にとって補完的に見ることが必要である.
科学分野:
- 社会科学
- コンピュータ社会科学
- 予測モデリング
背景:
- 伝統的な社会科学の研究は 予測の正確性よりも 解釈可能な因果メカニズムを優先した.
- 社会科学における コンピューティング・メソッドの出現は この長年のバイアスに 挑戦しています
- この分野を発展させるには 重要な問題に取り組む必要があります
研究 の 目的:
- 社会科学における予測精度の重要性を主張する.
- コンピュータ社会科学の時代に 解決を必要とする 3つの重要な問題を強調します
- より正確で複製可能で有用な社会科学研究への道を提案する.
主な方法:
- 社会科学における伝統的対計算的アプローチの概念分析.
- 予測精度を評価する際の課題を特定し,議論する.
- 予測精度と解釈可能性の関係に関する理論的枠組み.
主要な成果:
- 社会科学における予測を評価する現在の慣行は,標準化が欠けている.
- 複雑な社会システムにおける予測精度の理論的限界はよく定義されていません.
- 予測の正確さと解釈は 補足ではなく 代用として扱われます
結論:
- 予測の評価を標準化することは 信頼性の高い社会科学に不可欠です
- 理論的限界を特徴づけることは,予測と説明のための現実的な期待を設定します.
- 予測の正確性と解釈性を統合することで 社会科学の発見の質と有用性が向上します
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