35の工業国における将来の平均寿命:ベイジアンモデル・アンサンブルによる予測
Vasilis Kontis1, James E Bennett1, Colin D Mathers2
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; MRC-PHE Centre for Environment and Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|February 26, 2017
まとめ
将来の平均余命は大きく増加し,2030年までに女性が90歳を超える確率は高い. これらの発見は,健康と年金サービスの積極的な計画が必要であることを強調しています.
科学分野:
- 人口統計
- 公衆衛生
- ゲロントロジー
背景:
- 死亡率と平均寿命の正確な予測は,医療サービス,社会支援,年金制度の計画に不可欠です.
- 予測モデルの選択における不確実性は,堅固な予測方法を必要とします.
研究 の 目的:
- 年齢別死亡率と平均寿命を予測する
- 35の工業国における将来の予測にモデル不確実性を組み込む.
主な方法:
- 確率予測のための21の予測モデルを集めた.
- 死亡率と平均寿命を2030年まで予測するための年齢別死亡率と寿命表の方法
- 推定寿命は65歳から70歳までです
主要な成果:
- 平均寿命は35か国すべてで増加すると予測されています (女性では≥65%,男性では≥85%の確率).
- 韓国の女性は2030年までに86.7歳を超え,90歳を超える確率は57%である.
- 女性の平均寿命の優位性は,ほとんどの国で減少すると予想され,65歳以降の生存率の増加に起因する長寿の増加が顕著である.
結論:
- 女性の平均寿命は2030年までに90歳を超えると予測されています
- 社会サービスと年金における適応的な計画が必要であることを強調しています.
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