アメリカン・ドリームの衰退: 絶対的所得流動性の傾向 1940年以降
Raj Chetty1, David Grusky2, Maximilian Hell3
1Department of Economics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. chetty@stanford.edu grusky@stanford.edu nhendren@fas.harvard.edu.
まとめ
収入の絶対的流動性 つまり 子供が親よりも多く稼ぐ可能性は 大きく減少しています GDPの増加だけでなく 広く共有された経済成長が アメリカン・ドリームの復活の鍵です
科学分野:
- 経済学
- 社会学
- 公共政策
背景:
- 絶対的所得流動性は 子供が親の経済的地位を上回る確率を測ります
- 過去のデータによると,アメリカでは近年,上流階級の移動が著しく減少しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 米国における出生コホートにおける 絶対所得移動率の減少を定量化するために
- 収入流動性の変化に影響を与える要因を特定する.
- より高い移動率を回復するための政策の影響を調査する.
主な方法:
- 米国国勢調査と現在の人口調査のデータを 税務記録を消去したものです
- 世代間の収入変化を追跡するために 縦断的なデータを分析しました
- 異なる出生コホートにおける絶対所得移動率の推定値
主要な成果:
- 絶対的所得流動性は,1940年の出生コホートでは約90%から1980年の出生コホートでは50%に減少した.
- 国内総生産 (GDP) の成長だけでは 移動性を1940年代の水準に戻すには不十分です
- 1940年代のように GDPの成長のより公平な分配は 移動性の減少の70%以上を逆転させることができます
結論:
- 収入の移動率の減少は 深刻な社会的影響を持つ重要な傾向です
- アメリカン・ドリームを復活させるには 全ての収入層に恩恵をもたらす 経済成長が必要です
- 経済的利益のより広範な共有を促進する政策は,世代間の流動性を高めるために不可欠です.
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