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Updated: Feb 27, 2026

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Simulating Impacts of Ice Storms on Forest Ecosystems
Published on: June 30, 2020
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米国における気候変動による経済的被害の推定
Solomon Hsiang1,2, Robert Kopp3, Amir Jina4
1Global Policy Laboratory, Goldman School of Public Policy, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA. shsiang@berkeley.edu robert.kopp@rutgers.edu.
まとめ
気候変動は米国経済に大きな影響を及ぼし 摂氏1度あたりGDPの1.2%を 失うことになります 貧困地域は不均衡を悪化させ,不釣り合いの高い経済的損害に直面しています.
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 環境経済学
- 経済モデリング
背景:
- 経済的被害の推定は 効果的な気候政策に不可欠です
- 以前のモデルには 空間的明示性や確率的厳しさが欠けていました
研究 の 目的:
- 気候変動による損害を計算するための柔軟な枠組みを開発する.
- 空間的に明示的な,確率的,そして経験的に導き出された経済損害の推定を米国に生成する.
主な方法:
- 統合された気候科学,エコノメトリック分析,プロセスモデル
- 損傷計算のための新しいアーキテクチャを構築した.
- 損害を推定するために経験的データを使用した.
主要な成果:
- 市場と非市場を合わせた損害は 地球の平均気温とともに二乗的に増加します
- 平均的なコストは1°CあたりGDPの約1.2%である.
- 気候変動の影響は不均等に分布し 北部と西部の地域が優れ 経済格差が増加しています
結論:
- アメリカで最も貧しい郡は 深刻な経済的影響に直面しています 高排出シナリオの下では 21世紀末までに 収入の20%まで 被害が及ぶのです
- 気候変動の緩和と適応の両方に対処する政策の必要性を強調し,脆弱な集団に焦点を当てています.
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