ストラトスフィアのオゾン層の回復を検出する

Martyn P Chipperfield^1,2, Slimane Bekki³, Sandip Dhomse¹

¹School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, UK.

Nature

|September 15, 2017

まとめ

ストラトスフィアのオゾン層はモントリオール議定書によって回復していますが,気候変動と短いデータ記録は,このオゾン回復の初期の兆候を検出することを困難にしています.

科学分野:

大気化学
気候科学
オゾン層の動態

背景:

モントリオール議定書 (1987年) は,オゾン層を破壊する物質 (ODS) の世界的な削減を開始した.
ストラトスフィアのオゾン層は,大気中のODSの負荷が減少した後に回復すると予測されています.
オゾン回復の初期徴候を検出することは,短いデータ記録と自然の大気変動により困難です.

研究の目的:

ストラトスフィアのオゾン回復の性質と時間尺度について議論する.
異なる大気圏におけるオゾン回復の現在の検出可能性を調査する.
気候変化がオゾン層の回復に与える影響を評価する.

主な方法:

大気データ記録の分析
オゾン層の動態モデリング
気候変化が平流層化学に及ぼす影響の評価

主要な成果:

オゾン回復は進行中ですが,観測記録が短く,大気変動が大きいため検出が困難です.
気候の変化は特定の地域でのオゾン回復を覆い隠し,将来の回復の範囲に影響を及ぼすと予測されています.
オゾン回復の検出は,大気圏の異なる地域によって異なります.

結論:

モントリオール議定書は有効ですが,オゾン回復の全範囲とタイミングは複雑で,継続的な気候変動の影響を受けています.
ストラトスフィアのオゾン層の将来を理解し予測するには,継続的な監視と高度なモデリングが不可欠です.
オゾン層を破壊する物質の減少と気候変動の相互作用は,オゾン層の健康状態を評価するための微妙なアプローチを必要とします.

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