世界生物多様性損失の減少は,保全支出から予測される
Anthony Waldron1,2, Daniel C Miller2, Dave Redding3
1Edward Grey Institute, Department of Zoology, Oxford University, Oxford OX1 3PS, UK.
Nature
|October 27, 2017
まとめ
生物多様性の損失は109カ国で平均29%減少しました 新しいモデルは 保護の成果を予測し 人々の開発の圧力の中で 資金提供の必要性を指針にしています
科学分野:
- エコロジー
- 保護生物学
- 環境経済学
背景:
- 生物多様性に関する条約と国連の持続可能な開発目標を阻害する重大な課題です.
- 保護の成功の限界は,部分的に資金決定の影響に関する不確実性によるものです.
- 生物多様性の減少と保全支出を 定量的に結びつけるには 根拠に基づいたモデルが必要です
研究 の 目的:
- 生物多様性の減少と保全投資を結びつける量的なモデルを実証する.
- 署名国における生物多様性に対する保全支出の影響を実証的に評価する.
- 保護成果と資金需要を予測するための 意思決定者のための予測ツールを開発する.
主な方法:
- 保存投資の影響を評価するための定量モデルを開発し,適用しました.
- 1996年から2008年までの109カ国 (CBDとSDGsの署名国) のデータを分析した.
- 予測の正確性のために,人間開発の圧力 (経済,農業,人口増加) に対する保全投資のバランスをとる二重モデルを使用した.
主要な成果:
- 生物多様性の損失を減らし,平均29%を削減しました.
- 署名国における生物多様性の変化は高い精度で予測されました.
- このモデルは,人間開発の圧力が増加するにつれて,保全支出の影響が減少することを示しました.
結論:
- 開発されたモデルは,証拠に基づいたアプローチを保全の資金提供に提供しています.
- 意思決定者は様々なシナリオで提案された予算の有効性を予測するためにモデルを使用できます.
- 人々の開発への圧力が増大するにつれて,資金の増加が必要になる可能性があり,ダイナミックな金融戦略の必要性を強調しています.
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