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地球の最近のエネルギー予算から推測されるより大きな将来の地球温暖化
Patrick T Brown1,1, Ken Caldeira1,1
1Department of Global Ecology, Carnegie Institution for Science, Stanford, California, USA.
Nature
|December 9, 2017
まとめ
気候モデルでは 地球温暖化の予測は様々です 観測可能な気候エネルギー予算のパターンを モデルアウトプットと関連付けることで 科学者たちは 将来の温暖化の見積もりを 精密に分析し 安定化のために より急激な排出削減が必要だと示唆しました
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 地球システム科学
- 大気物理学
背景:
- 気候モデルは将来の地球温暖化の予測に不可欠ですが,モデル間の大きな変動を示しています.
- 同様の放射性強制シナリオでは,2の因数で変化するモデルの推定値の不一致は,予測の精度を向上させる必要があります.
研究 の 目的:
- 観測可能な気候属性とシミュレートされた将来の温暖化との間の強固なモデル間関係を特定し,活用する.
- 観測データによるモデル出力を制限することで,地球温暖化予測を精製する.
主な方法:
- 複数の気候モデルにおける地球の大気圏上のエネルギー予算の特性のグローバル空間パターンの分析.
- これらの観測可能な属性とシミュレートされた温暖化量との間には統計的な関係が確立された.
- モデルの予測は,観察データを用いて,精度を改善し,不確実性を減らすために制限された.
主要な成果:
- 観測可能なエネルギー予算のパターンと予測される地球温暖化との間に強い関係が見出されました.
- 観測的に制限された予測は,最も急な強制シナリオでより高い平均温暖化 (+0.5°C) を示した.
- 予測される温暖化の不確実性範囲 (標準偏差2倍) は約3分の1 (-1.2°C) 減少した.
結論:
- 観測データで気候モデルを制限することで,信頼性が向上し,将来の温暖化予測の範囲が狭くなります.
- 温室効果ガスの排出量を以前よりも激しく削減する必要がある.
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