難民申請は温度変動に対応する
Anouch Missirian1, Wolfram Schlenker1,2,3
1School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
まとめ
気候変動は人の移住に影響し,気象の変化はEUにおける亡命申請の増加に結びついています. 将来の温暖化は,特に高温のシナリオでは,この傾向を著しく加速させる可能性があります.
科学分野:
- 環境科学
- 気候変動に関する研究
- 社会学
背景:
- 気候変動に関する国際交渉と地中海の移住は,気候変動が人間の移動に与える影響を理解する必要性を強調しています.
- 過去の研究では,天候の変動と国境を越えた亡命申請の関係が完全に定量化されていません.
研究 の 目的:
- 2000年から2014年にかけての気候の変動と欧州連合 (EU) への亡命申請の量的な関係を調査する.
- 気候変動のシナリオに基づいて 将来の亡命申請を予測する
主な方法:
- 欧州連合 (EU) の亡命申請 (年間平均35万1000件) の分析は,103か国 (2000~2014) の天気データと相関しています.
- NASA エース・エクスチェンジ・グローバル・デイリー・ダウンスケール・プロジェクション (NEX-GDDP) を利用し,将来予測のための21の気候モデルを使用した.
- 将来の気候モデリングのためのRCPシナリオ4.5と8.5.
主要な成果:
- 最適な温度から逸脱する ~20°C 非線形的に増加した亡命申請
- RCP 4.5では2100年までに28%の増加 (年間9万8千件の申請) が予測されています.
- RCP 8.5の下で 2100年までに188%の大幅な増加 (66万件/年)
結論:
- 気候変動,特に気温の異常は,EUへの亡命申請の重要な要因です.
- 将来の温暖化により 難民申請が著しく増加すると予測され 積極的な政策の対応が求められます
- 気候変動とそれに関連する移住圧力を緩和するために,緊急に世界的な気候変動対策が必要であることを強調しています.
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