ミシシッピ川の洪水リスクの気候制御は,河川工学によって増幅されています
Samuel E Munoz1,2,3, Liviu Giosan1, Matthew D Therrell4
1Department of Geology & Geophysics, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, Woods Hole, Massachusetts 02543, USA.
Nature
|April 6, 2018
まとめ
河川工学は 500年にわたってミシシッピ川の洪水の大きさを大幅に増幅しました 気候の変動も重要な役割を果たしますが 人為的な変化が 洪水リスクの増大の主な要因です
科学分野:
- 水学
- 気候科学
- 河川工学
背景:
- 世界各地の主要な川は 洪水制御,電力,航海のために設計されています
- ミシシッピ川の改変は堆積物と運河の形状に影響を与え,洪水の危険性について議論されている.
- 川の自然変動と洪水リスクの理解を制限している.
研究 の 目的:
- ミシシッピ川の洪水の危険性に対する 気候の変動と河川工学の影響を 評価するためです
- 人為的な変化による洪水増加の影響を定量化する.
- 気候変動のダイナミクスと洪水リスクの河川管理の相互作用を理解する.
主な方法:
- 洪水の頻度と規模を500年にわたって再構築した.
- エルニーニョ・サザン・オシレーションと大西洋多年周期オシレーションを含む気候変動の分析
- 洪水の大きさの変化を河川工学と気候要因に割り当てる.
主要な成果:
- ミシシッピ川の洪水リスクの傾向は,気候の変動性 (ENSO,AMO) によって調節されます.
- 人工的なチャネライゼーションは 過去100年に渡って 洪水の規模を拡大しました
- 100年の洪水の規模は 5世紀に20%増加し 75%は河川工学に起因しています
結論:
- ミシシッピ川システムへの人間の変化が 気候の変動と相互作用し 洪水のリスクが高まった.
- 河川工学は,最近の洪水増幅の主要な要因です.
- ミシシッピ川の下流の洪水リスクは 過去500年で前例のないレベルです
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