地球温暖化が2°Cではなく1.5°Cに制限されれば,昆虫,脊椎動物,植物に及ぼす影響
まとめ
地球温暖化を1.5°Cに制限すると,2°Cと比較して 予測される種の生息範囲の損失が大幅に減少します この重要な気候目標により 生物多様性が保護され 昆虫,植物,脊椎動物の数が減少し 住環境が著しく減少しています
科学分野:
- 気候変動の生物学
- 生物多様性の保全
- 生態モデリング
背景:
- パリ協定は,地球温暖化を1.5°Cに制限することを目指しており,これは以前の2°C目標よりも野心的な目標です.
- 現在の世界的な気候変動の約束は不十分で,温暖化は約3.2°Cと予測されています.
- 様々な温暖化シナリオでは 生物多様性の大きな損失が予想されます
研究 の 目的:
- 異なる地球温暖化レベル (1.5°C,2°C,3.2°C) が昆虫,植物,脊椎動物の気候によって決定される地域範囲の損失に及ぼす影響を定量化する.
- 2°Cの限界値と比較して1.5°Cの温暖化限界値を達成することで,種の生息範囲の保全にどのような利点があるかを評価する.
主な方法:
- パリ協定の目標と関連した気候予測データを活用した.
- 主要な分類 (昆虫,植物,脊椎動物) の気候によって決定される地理的範囲の変化をモデル化した.
- 1.5°C, 2°C,現在の約束 (~3.2°C) の温暖化シナリオで予測される範囲の損失を比較した.
主要な成果:
- ~3.2°Cの温暖化では,昆虫の49%,植物の44%,脊椎動物の26%が,その範囲の50%以上を失う可能性があります.
- 2°Cの温暖化で,これらの数字は18% (昆虫),16% (植物),8% (脊椎動物) に減少します.
- 1.5°Cの温暖化で,範囲の損失はさらに6% (昆虫),8% (植物),4% (脊椎動物) に減少します.
結論:
- 地球温暖化を1.5°Cに制限すると 深刻な範囲の縮小に直面する 種の割合が劇的に減少します
- 2°Cと比較して1.5°Cの目標を達成すると,範囲が50%以上減少する種の数は,昆虫の場合は約66%,植物や脊椎動物の場合は約50%減少する.
- 1.5°Cの目標を達成するための緊急の気候対策は,地球規模の生物多様性の保全に不可欠です.
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