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パリ協定の目標である1.5°Cの温暖化から生じる多くの気候
Sonia I Seneviratne1, Joeri Rogelj2,3,4,5, Roland Séférian6
1Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland. sonia.seneviratne@ethz.ch.
Nature
|June 8, 2018
まとめ
地球温暖化を1.5°Cに制限すると 地域の気候が変化する可能性があります パリ協定の政策にもかかわらず 危険な極端な気候は 生態系や社会にとって 危険です
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 環境科学
- グローバル・ポリシーの分析
背景:
- パリ協定は,地球温暖化を工業化以前のレベルより1.5°Cに制限することを目的としています.
- 1.5°Cのシナリオの下での予測される地域気候の成果はよく理解されていません.
- これらの地域的な違いを理解することは 効果的な気候変動対策に不可欠です
研究 の 目的:
- 1.5°Cの温暖化に伴う地域的な気候変動の影響を調査する.
- 気候変動のペース,場所,社会的要因の相互作用を分析する.
- 極端な温度の残留リスクとその影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 気候モデルを使って 1.5°Cの軌道をシミュレートする
- 緩和と適応能力を含む社会経済的要因の統合
- 予測される気候変動に対する地域の脆弱性を評価する.
主要な成果:
- 1.5°Cの世界への軌跡は 気候の影響において 地域的に大きな差異を示しています
- 気候変動のスピードと場所が 社会の脆弱性と相互作用しています
- 1.5°Cに一貫した政策であっても,地球温暖化や地域極端な気温の上昇のリスクは依然として存在します.
結論:
- 1.5°Cの目標を達成しても グローバルな気候の恩恵は 均一に保証されません
- 気候変動の影響における地域格差は,適応と緩和戦略の調整を必要とします.
- 生態系や社会に対する残留リスクを管理するために,継続的な警戒が必要である.
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