トロポスフィアの季節的な温度サイクルに対する人間の影響
Benjamin D Santer1, Stephen Po-Chedley2, Mark D Zelinka2
1Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, Livermore, CA 94550, USA. santer1@llnl.gov.
まとめ
衛星データや気候モデルで検出できる 地球の季節的な気温サイクルを 人間の活動によって変化させています この人為的な気象信号は 自然の気象変動よりも 顕著です
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 大気物理学
- 地球システム科学
背景:
- 自然の気象の変動は 人為的な気象信号を覆い隠すことができます
- 季節の気温の周期は 気候の動態の重要な指標です
- 人為的な気候変動は季節的な気温パターンを変化させると予想されます.
研究 の 目的:
- トロポスフィアの気温の季節的なサイクルで 人為的な信号の科学的証拠を提供するために
- 季節の気温パターンの観測変化と気候モデルの予測を比較する.
- 人為的な指紋を衛星データで検出する信頼性を評価する.
主な方法:
- 衛星からの熱帯気温データ分析
- 季節のサイクル幅の観測された地理的パターンと気候モデルの出力と比較.
- 信号検出の信頼性を決定するための統計分析.
主要な成果:
- 季節の気温サイクルにおける 人為的なシグナルが 自然の変動から生じています
- 観測およびモデル化された季節周期の振幅の変化は,共通の特徴を示している (例えば,中緯度上昇,南半球の高緯度減少).
- 人為的な指紋は,ほとんどの衛星データセットで高い統計的信頼性で識別できます.
結論:
- 変化する季節のサイクルは 地球の気候に 人間が及ぼす影響の 強力な証拠です
- 季節的なサイクルの変化に焦点を当てたアトリビューション研究は,人為的な気候変動の影響を検出するのに有効です.
- 観測された季節的な気温の変化は 人為的な気候変動の予測と一致しています
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