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大規模なハリケーン発生に対する相対的な熱帯大西洋温暖化の支配的な影響
H Murakami1,2, E Levin3, T L Delworth4,2
1Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Princeton, NJ, USA. hir.murakami@gmail.com.
まとめ
2017年の主要ハリケーンシーズンの原動力は ラニーニャではなく 温暖な大西洋の表面温度でした この温暖化傾向は 気候変動と関連しており 将来の大西洋のハリケーンが より強くなることを示唆しています
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 海洋学
- 気象学
背景:
- 2017年の大西洋のハリケーンシーズンは,複数の主要ハリケーンで異常な高いアクティビティを示した.
- ハリケーン活動の増加の要因を理解することは 気候変動への適応と緩和戦略に不可欠です
研究 の 目的:
- 2017年に大西洋における主要なハリケーン活動に寄与した主な要因を調査する.
- 大西洋のハリケーン活動に対する海面温度の変化の潜在的な将来の影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 大気と海洋の条件をシミュレートするために,高解像度モデル実験のスイートを利用しました.
- 海洋表面温度データを分析し,自然変動 (例えばラニーニャ) と長期的な傾向を区別する.
主要な成果:
- この研究では,熱帯北大西洋における顕著な暖かい海面条件が,ラニーニャではなく,2017年の主要なハリケーン増加の主な引き金であることが判明しました.
- 海面温度の長期的傾向は,将来的に大きなハリケーンの数を増やす可能性を示唆しています.
結論:
- 熱帯大西洋の相対的な温暖化は,大西洋の主要ハリケーン活動を制御する重要な要因です.
- 温室効果ガスの増加とエアロゾールの減少は,この温暖化傾向を悪化させ,将来のハリケーン強度の増加につながると予測されています.
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