気候目標を達成するために欧州の森林の使用のトレードオフ
Sebastiaan Luyssaert1,2, Guillaume Marie3, Aude Valade4,5
1Faculty of Science, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands. s.luyssaert@vu.nl.
Nature
|October 12, 2018
まとめ
欧州の森林管理は,二酸化炭素 (CO2) の排出量を削減する一方で,パリ協定の気候目標を満たしていません. 気候変動を緩和するために 森林に頼ることは 適度な局所的利益を示し ヨーロッパは森林に依存すべきではないことを示唆しています
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 林業
- 環境政策
背景:
- パリ協定は,二酸化炭素 (CO2) 排出量の削減を通じて気候変動を緩和するための森林管理を強調しています.
- 森林の炭素収納による潜在的な気候上の利益は,アルベド,熱流,および他の要因の同時管理による変化によって相殺することができます.
- 欧州の森林管理戦略がパリ協定の目標に合致しているかどうかは不明です.
研究 の 目的:
- 持続可能な欧州の森林管理ポートフォリオがパリ協定の基準を満たしているかどうかを評価する.
- これらのポートフォリオが21世紀末までに大気中のCO2の増加率,放射能の不均衡,地表近くの気温,降水量を減少させるかどうかを評価する.
主な方法:
- 様々な欧州の森林管理ポートフォリオの気候影響のシミュレーション
- 炭素の収束,アルベドを最大化したり,地表近くの気温を最小化したりするポートフォリオを評価します.
- 4つの主要な気候基準を評価した. CO2の成長率,放射能の不均衡,温度,降水.
主要な成果:
- 二酸化炭素の増加率を低下させましたが 他の基準には不十分でした
- アルベドを最大化するには 条件が一つしかない
- 地表近くの気温を下げるために森林を管理すると,2つの基準 (低温とCO2の増加率) が満たされた.
結論:
- 欧州の森林を気候変動の目的に利用する際には 避けられないトレードオフが存在します
- 森林の管理は,森林の覆いが持続するならば,適度な,地元の気候の利益をもたらします.
- 気候変動を緩和するために,ヨーロッパは森林管理に頼るべきではない.森林は,気候変動に重大な影響を及ぼさずに適応できる.
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