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主要な熱帯サイクロンイベントに対する人類的影響
Christina M Patricola1, Michael F Wehner2
1Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, USA. cmpatricola@lbl.gov.
Nature
|November 16, 2018
まとめ
気候の変化により 大規模なハリケーンでは 降雨量が増えましたが 風の速度は 上がっていません 将来の温暖化は,ほとんどの熱帯サイクロンにとって,風と降雨の両方を強化し,信頼性の高い予測を提供します.
科学分野:
- 大気科学
- 気候科学
- 気象学
背景:
- 気候変化が熱帯サイクロン統計に与える影響については,自然的な変動性と限られた観測データのために合意が欠けている.
- 将来の熱帯サイクロンの予測は不確実であり,しばしば熱帯サイクロンを直接表現するのに苦労する粗い解像度の気候モデルに依存しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 近年の破壊的な熱帯サイクロンが 工業化以前の気候条件と将来の気候条件で どのように変化するかを調査する.
- 先進的な気候モデルを使用して,熱帯サイクロンの強度と降雨量に対する気候変動の影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 高解像度分析のために,コンベクションを可能にする地域気候モデルシミュレーションを使用した.
- カトリーナ・ハリケーンや イルマ・ハリケーンや マリア・ハリケーンといった 特定の歴史的出来事を 様々な気候シナリオで調べました
- コンベクティブパラメータ化によってもたらされた不確実性を評価するために追加のシミュレーションを実行しました.
主要な成果:
- 気候変動により カトリーナ・イルマ・マリアの降雨量は 工業化以前の状況と比較して増加しましたが 風速の強さは変わっていません
- 将来の人為的な温暖化は,世界中で研究された激しい熱帯サイクロンの大部分において,風速と降雨量の両方を大幅に増加させると予測されています.
- コンベクティブパラメータ化は,熱帯サイクロン強度と降雨量の変化の予測された兆候に最小限の不確実性を導入します.
結論:
- 現在の気候変動は既に熱帯サイクロンによる降雨に影響を及ぼしており,将来の温暖化により風も降雨も著しく増加すると予想されています.
- 高解像度の地域気候モデルは,信頼性の高い予測を提供し,十分な解像度とパラメータ化されたコンベクションを持つグローバルモデルの予測に対する信頼性を高めます.
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