スケール内とスケール横のカスケーディング・シフト
Juan C Rocha1,2, Garry Peterson3, Örjan Bodin3
1Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 10691 Stockholm, Sweden. juan.rocha@su.se.
まとめ
生態系には 臨界変遷と呼ばれる 臨界変遷が起こります この研究は,多くの体制のシフトがカスケード効果を引き起こし,将来のシフトに影響を与え,統合された管理戦略を必要とすることを示しています.
科学分野:
- エコロジー
- 環境科学
- 複雑なシステム
背景:
- 生態系は,レジムシフトとして知られる 大規模で,急激で,持続的な重要な移行に容易です.
- 複数のレジムシフトとその潜在的なカスケード効果の相互作用は,ほとんど未調査のままである.
- 環境の変化に対する生態系の反応を予測する上で これらの相互作用を理解することは極めて重要です
研究 の 目的:
- 異なる体制のシフトがどのように相互作用し,互いに影響するかを調査する.
- ドミノ効果 (一方向依存) とカスケーディング・レジーム・シフトにおける隠されたフィードバック (二方向相互作用) を区別する.
- これらのカスケーディング効果を 共有されたドライバーによって誘発された相関関係と比較する.
主な方法:
- ネットワークとして表現された30の記録されたレジムシフトの分析.
- 構造的な相互依存性を検出するために,対対のレジムシフトの組み合わせを特定し,比較する.
- カスケード効果の可能性に影響を与える要因の評価,例えばクロススケール相互作用.
主要な成果:
- 約45%の対照的なレジムシフトの組み合わせは,合理的な構造的相互依存を示した.
- 相互作用の種類 (ドミノ効果と隠されたフィードバック) に基づいてカスケード効果の発生は様々であった.
- カスケード効果の確率に影響を与える重要な要因として,クロススケール相互作用が特定されました.
結論:
- 政権交代は孤立して起こらない.多くの場合,カスケーディング効果につながる相互依存性を示す.
- 生態系の管理戦略は,これらの潜在的なつながりを考慮して,重要な移行を効果的に対処する必要があります.
- カスケード効果の種類を区別することは,正確な予測と管理に不可欠です.
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