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複雑なネットワークは,極端な雨のテレコネクションのグローバルパターンを明らかにします
Niklas Boers1,2, Bedartha Goswami3, Aljoscha Rheinwalt4
1Grantham Institute for Climate Change, Imperial College, London, UK. boers@pik-potsdam.de.
Nature
|February 1, 2019
まとめ
この研究は,ローズビー波によって引き起こされる可能性のある,より短い地域パターンと,より長いグローバルなパターンを特定し,世界的な降雨の遠隔接続を明らかにしています. これらの発見は 極端な降雨現象とその予測可能性の理解を深めています
科学分野:
- 大気科学
- 気候学
- ネットワーク科学
背景:
- 極端な気象現象は 大気圏の遠隔通信と よく結びついています
- これらのテレコネクションを理解することは 気候の予報や 極端な出来事を予測する上で 極めて重要です
- 以前の研究では 遠隔接続パターンを特定することに 焦点を当てていましたが 極端な降雨の グローバル カップリングメカニズムは まだあまり理解されていません
研究 の 目的:
- 極端な降雨のパターンを明らかにするために
- これらのテレコネクションを制御する基本的なメカニズムを理解する.
- 異なる地域における極端な降雨現象の同期を調査する.
主な方法:
- 高解像度衛星データに対する複合ネットワークの方法論の適用
- 機能的なネットワークにおける複数の比較バイアスを修正する技術の開発.
- テレコネクションに関連するロスビー波を含む大気条件の分析.
主要な成果:
- 2500kmまでの地域気象システムの接続距離のパワー法崩壊
- 超大力法則の分布は,より長い接続で,世界的な降雨テレコネクションパターンを示しています.
- アジアとアフリカのモンスーンシステムの極端な降雨イベントの重要な同期.
- 南アジアモンスーンと両半球の熱帯圏外地域との関連が確認された.
- ローズビー波が 物理的なメカニズムで グローバル・テレコネクションを 動かすことを確認した
結論:
- ローズビー波は 極端な降雨に際して 安定した地球規模の依存関係を確立します
- 特定された遠隔接続パターンは,自然災害の予測可能性に関する洞察を提供します.
- この研究は,極端な降雨の予測における熱帯と熱帯外の結合の理解を進めるものです.
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