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南極の氷河の不安定さによる南極の氷の損失を再確認する

Tamsin L Edwards1, Mark A Brandon2, Gael Durand3

  • 1Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK. tamsin.edwards@kcl.ac.uk.

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|February 8, 2019
PubMed
まとめ

南極の海面上昇を過大評価しているかもしれない. MICIは過去の海面の変化に不可欠ではありません.

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科学分野:

  • * 氷河学と気候科学
  • * 南極の氷床の動態

背景:

  • * 南極の融解による今世紀における海面上昇の予測は大きく異なっており,高水準の推定は海洋氷崖の不安定性 (MICI) 仮説に基づいている.
  • * MICIは,地球温暖化による融解による氷棚崩壊後の沿岸の氷崖の急速な崩壊を想定しています.
  • * 現代におけるMICIの発生は確認されていないし,過去の海平面変動を説明するためのその必要性は不確実である.

研究 の 目的:

  • * MICI仮説に関連する氷床モデルの不確実性を定量化する.
  • * 過去と将来の南極海平面の貢献を説明するMICIの役割を評価する.
  • * モデリングの不確実性とMICI仮説を考慮して,現在の海面上昇予測を再評価する.

主な方法:

  • * 最初のMICI研究に関連する不確実性を分析するために,氷床モデルが使用されました.
  • * モデルアウトプットは,プレオセンの中期,最後の氷河間期,および1992年から2017年の海面データと比較した.
  • MICI と無関係に異なる海面上昇シナリオの確率を決定するために,確率分析が行われました.

主要な成果:

  • * 氷床モデルの不確実性は,非常に高い温室効果ガスの濃度下では最も可能性が高い値である45cmの低い海面上昇値に偏った確率分布を示します.
  • * MICI仮説は,プレオセンの中期,最後の氷河間,および最近の (1992年−2017年) 期に観測された海面の変化を正確に再現する必要はありません.
  • * MICIを除くと,海面上昇予測は以前の研究と一致し,95パーセントは一貫して43cm以下です.

結論:

  • * MICI予測の以前の解釈は,今世紀における海面上昇の可能性を過大評価している.
  • * MICI仮説は,現在のデータによって十分に制限されず,さらなる研究が必要である.
  • *MICIを組み込む信頼性の高い予測には,氷床の脆弱性や氷崖の崩壊メカニズムを評価する,観察的に制約されたモデルの幅広い範囲が必要である.