地球システムモデルによる季節性から多年の海洋生態系予測

Jong-Yeon Park^1,2,3, Charles A Stock², John P Dunne²

¹Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08540, USA. jongyeon.park@jbnu.ac.kr.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|July 20, 2019

まとめ

地球システムモデル (ESM) は,クロロフィルの変動や漁獲を含む海洋生態系の変化を予測することができます. これらの予測は地域社会が気候変動に適応し海洋資源の回復力のある管理を支援します

科学分野:

海洋生態学
気候科学
地球システムモデリング

背景:

気候の変動は海洋生態系とそれに依存するコミュニティに重大な影響を及ぼします
生態系の変化を予測することは適応と回復力にとって不可欠です

研究の目的:

地球システムモデル (ESM) ベースの海洋生地化学予測のスキルを評価する.
生態系の変化を予測し,資源管理を支援する上で,これらの予測の可能性を評価する.

主な方法:

新たに開発されたESMベースの海洋生物化学予測を利用した.
衛星から得られたクロロフィルのデータと予測を比較した.
予測された変数と漁獲の変動との関係を調査した.

主要な成果:

ESMの予測は,多くの地域で季節から多年にわたるクロロフィルの変動を巧みに予測しています.
予測スキルは,エルニーニョ・サザンオシレーションと栄養分異常に対する反応をシミュレートすることと関連しています.
大規模な海洋生態系における年間漁獲の変動は,クロロフィルの予測と海面温度から予測できます.

結論:

ESMに基づく海洋生地化学予測は,生態系の動態に関する貴重な洞察を提供します.
これらの予測は,海洋資源のダイナミックな管理と生態系の回復力を高める可能性を示しています.

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