"海洋漁業の生産に対する過去の温暖化の影響"に関するコメント
1Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA 98115, USA.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|August 17, 2019
まとめ
海洋表面温度 (SST) と最大持続可能な収穫量 (MSY) の減少を結びつける以前の発見とは対照的に,世界の魚の生産性は増加しました. 新しい分析によると 全体的な生産性は 減少するのではなく 増加しています
科学分野:
- 海洋生物学
- 漁業科学
- 気候変動の影響
背景:
- 以前の研究では,海面温度 (SST) と漁業における最大持続可能な収穫量 (MSY) の減少との関連が示唆されていました.
- SSTの変化による1930年以降のMSYの4%の減少が推定された.
研究 の 目的:
- SSTと漁業生産の関係を再評価する.
- 漁業の生産性の変化の要因を調査する.
- 環境要因が最大持続可能な収穫量に与える影響を明確にする.
主な方法:
- 年齢構造データを用いた漁業生産モデルの分析
- 雇用データを生産性の指標として検討する.
- 過去の漁業データとSST記録の比較
主要な成果:
- MSYの変化をSSTにのみ帰属させるのは,生産モデルにおける年齢構造データの影響が問題である.
- 雇用データを分析した結果,世界の漁業の生産性が上昇したことが明らかになりました.
- 観測されたMSYの変化は,SSTの変動によって直接的にまたは単独で引き起こされない場合があります.
結論:
- 世界的な漁業の生産性は上昇しており,これまでの結論に異議を唱える.
- 生産モデルが年齢構造を適切に考慮していない場合,SSTがMSYに与える影響は過大評価される可能性があります.
- 環境要因と漁業の生産性との複雑な相互作用を完全に理解するには,さらなる研究が必要です.
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