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大規模な地震と小規模な地震の同一の発生を頻繁に観測する
1Department of Earth and Planetary Science, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan. ide@eps.s.u-tokyo.ac.jp.
Nature
|September 6, 2019
まとめ
大規模な地震は,特に潜水地帯では,より小さなものと同様の破裂プロセスを共有します. これは予測可能なカスケーディングの断裂を示唆しますが,正確な最終的な地震の大きさを予測する能力は限られています.
科学分野:
- 地理学
- 地震学
- 地震科学
背景:
- 地震の破裂の成長は地震の危険性を理解する上で不可欠です.
- 地震の大きさと動きを予測することは 早期警告と予測に不可欠です
- 最近の研究では,大きな地震と小さな地震の破裂過程の類似性が示唆されています.
研究 の 目的:
- 大規模な地震と小規模な地震の間の破裂過程の類似性を調査する.
- これらの類似性は,特に潜水地域では,一般的で予測可能であるかどうかを判断する.
- 地震の早期警告と予測への影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 東北・北海道潜水地の15年間の地震記録を体系的に比較した.
- およそ10万件の地震を分析し,異なる規模で同時に発生した地震に焦点を当てた.
- 交差相関分析を用いたイベント類似性の定量化
主要な成果:
- 大規模 (M>4.5) と小規模 (M <4.0) の並行して発生した地震の極度に類似した80組と,非常に類似した390組を特定した.
- 15年分隔の潜水式地震で高い類似性を観測した.
- 他の大きな地震の予震と余震だけが類似性を示した.
結論:
- 異なる大きさの潜水地震の間に似たような破裂プロセスが頻繁に発生することは,連続した破裂を示しています.
- これは,潜水地帯のプレートインターフェースに沿って階層的な構造を示唆しています.
- 地震の大きさの予測は確率的に限られているが,位置と潜在的な大きさの範囲を推論することができる.
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