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パリ協定の長期的な気温目標のための新しいシナリオの論理
Joeri Rogelj1,2,3, Daniel Huppmann4, Volker Krey4,5
1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria. j.rogelj@imperial.ac.uk.
Nature
|September 20, 2019
まとめ
現在の気候シナリオは 2100年の目標に焦点を当てることで 行動を遅らせる危険性があります この研究は,地球温暖化を制限する新しい枠組みを提案し,世代間の公平性と持続可能な未来のために早期の排出削減を優先します.
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 環境政策
- 持続可能な開発
背景:
- 地球温暖化緩和のための現在の気候シナリオは,しばしば世紀の終わりの目標 (2100) に焦点を当てています.
- 2100世紀を中心としたこのアプローチは 排出量削減の遅延と 受け入れがたい世紀半ばの温暖化につながるかもしれません
- 遅れた行動を補うために 将来の二酸化炭素除去に 依存することは リスクを伴う.
研究 の 目的:
- 気候政策の新たなシナリオの枠組みを提案し,地球温暖化を最大限制限することを優先する.
- 温度の安定化や逆転の物理科学と 気候対策を整合させる
- 気候変動のシナリオ設計に 世代間の公平性を明示的に組み込むこと
主な方法:
- 物理的な気候科学から 洞察を得ています
- ピーク温暖化限界に焦点を当てたシナリオの枠組みを開発する.
- ピーク後の温暖化の軌跡の影響を分析する
主要な成果:
- 気候変動対策の野心 炭素中立が温暖化ピークを 直接決定するまでは
- 持続可能性に様々な影響を及ぼす 異なる長期状態がピーク温暖化に続く可能性があります
- 提案された枠組みは,国連のパリ協定の目標と一致しています.
結論:
- 地球温暖化を1.5°Cまたは2°C以下に制限するより堅実なアプローチを提供している.
- ピーク温暖化と安定化/逆転に焦点を当てることで,現在の 2100 に焦点を当てたシナリオの弱点に対処できます.
- 世代間の公平性を明示的に取り扱うことは,効果的で公平な気候政策にとって極めて重要です.
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