中国のウハンで発生した2019nCoVの国内および国際的な感染拡大の可能性を予測するモデル研究
Joseph T Wu1, Kathy Leung1, Gabriel M Leung1
1WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Lancet (London, England)
|February 5, 2020
まとめ
2019年の新型コロナウイルス (2019-nCoV) 流行は,2020年1月25日までに推定75,815人の感染をもたらした. 緊急の世界的な公衆衛生介入がなければ 広範囲にわたる国際的流行が起こり得るのです
科学分野:
- 流行病学
- 感染症モデリング
- 公衆衛生
背景:
- 2019年12月31日から2019新型コロナウイルス (2019-nCoV) によって引き起こされた中国武漢における非典型性肺炎の発生.
- 中国の他の都市への感染拡大は,世界的な流行の懸念を高めた.
- 疫病の規模を推定し,公衆衛生上のリスクを予測し,予防介入を検討する緊急の必要性
研究 の 目的:
- 武漢における 2019-nCoV 流行の規模を推定する.
- 国内と世界の公衆衛生上のリスクを予測する.
- 隔離などの非薬学的介入の影響を評価する
主な方法:
- 武漢での感染を推測するために,国際的および国内での症例輸出データを利用した (2019年12月1日 - 2020年1月25日).
- 従業員のフライト予約と人間の移動に関するデータで,国内と世界の感染拡大を予測する.
- 感受性-暴露-感染性-回復メタポピュレーションモデルとマルコフ・チェーン・モンテカルロ・メソッドを推定した.
主要な成果:
- 2019-nCoVの推定基本生殖数 (R0) は2.68 (95% CrI 2.47-2.86) である.
- 2020年1月25日までにウハンで推定75,815人の感染者 (95%CRI37,304-130,330人).
- 武漢に1~2週間遅れで,中国の複数の都市で指数関数的に成長した.
結論:
- 2019-nCoVはウハンではもはや抑制されず,中国の他の主要都市で局所的な流行が起こり得る.
- 国際的な疫病発生の中心は,中国との交通接続が強い大都市にある可能性があります.
- 症状前の伝染と自己持続的な流行の可能性のために,世界的な準備と緩和介入は極めて重要です.
関連する概念動画
Steps in Outbreak Investigation
433
In the ever-evolving field of public health, statistical analysis serves as a cornerstone for understanding and managing disease outbreaks. By leveraging various statistical tools, health professionals can predict potential outbreaks, analyze ongoing situations, and devise effective responses to mitigate impact. For that to happen, there are a few possible stages of the analysis:
433
Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms-SNPs
17.8K
A single nucleotide polymorphism or SNP is a single nucleotide variation at a specific genomic position in a large population. It is the most prevalent type of sequence variation found in the human genome. Point mutations that occur in more than 1% of the population qualify as SNPs. These are present once every 1000 nucleotides on an average in the human genome. Replacement of a purine with another purine (A/G) or a pyrimidine with another pyrimidine (C/T) is known as a transition. In contrast,...
17.8K
Principles of Disease Surveillance
415
Disease surveillance is the systematic collection, analysis, and interpretation of health data essential to the planning, implementation, and evaluation of public health practice. This process integrates data dissemination to entities responsible for preventing and controlling disease, injury, and disability. Surveillance systems provide crucial information for action, helping public health authorities make informed decisions to manage and prevent outbreaks, ensure public safety, optimize...
415
International Nursing Organizations II
1.3K
The World Health Organization (WHO) is a specialized agency of the United Nations based in Geneva. The WHO has many initiatives that center around health. Primarily, they lead global efforts to expand universal health coverage using science-based policies and programs. They are also responsible for shaping health research agendas and developing norms and standards.
The WHO provides expert team support, including funding, vaccines, testing, and treatment tools at the country level to fight...
The WHO provides expert team support, including funding, vaccines, testing, and treatment tools at the country level to fight...
1.3K
Transmission-based Precautions I: Contact, Enteric, and Droplets
4.4K
Transmission-based precautions are for patients known to be infected or suspected to be infected or colonized with organisms that pose a significant risk to others. Some transmission-based precautions include contact, enteric, and droplet.
Contact Precautions:
Contact precautions are the measures taken to prevent the transmission of infectious agents, especially epidemiologically important microorganisms such as MRSA or influenza, primarily transmitted through direct or indirect contact with an...
Contact Precautions:
Contact precautions are the measures taken to prevent the transmission of infectious agents, especially epidemiologically important microorganisms such as MRSA or influenza, primarily transmitted through direct or indirect contact with an...
4.4K
Causality in Epidemiology
1.4K
Causality or causation is a fundamental concept in epidemiology, vital for understanding the relationships between various factors and health outcomes. Despite its importance, there's no single, universally accepted definition of causality within the discipline. Drawing from a systematic review, causality in epidemiology encompasses several definitions, including production, necessary and sufficient, sufficient-component, counterfactual, and probabilistic models. Each has its strengths and...
1.4K

