COVID-19の輸入に対するアフリカ諸国の準備と脆弱性:モデル研究
Marius Gilbert1, Giulia Pullano2, Francesco Pinotti3
1Spatial Epidemiology Laboratory, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium; Fonds National de la Recherche Scientifiques, Brussels, Belgium.
Lancet (London, England)
|February 24, 2020
まとめ
アフリカ諸国はCOVID-19の輸入リスクに直面しています. トップリスクの国々は中程度の対応能力を示しているが,他の国々は新型コロナウイルス病2019の検出と封じ込めのために緊急に資源の優先順位付けを必要としている.
科学分野:
- 世界保健安全保障
- エピデミオロジー
- 公衆衛生の準備
背景:
- COVID-19の流行は世界中に広がり,12カ国で局所感染が確認されています.
- アフリカはCOVID-19の輸入のリスクに直面しており,エジプトでは1人の症例が確認されています.
- 効果的なCOVID-19管理は,国家保健システムの能力に依存しています.
研究 の 目的:
- COVID-19の輸入に対するアフリカ諸国の準備と脆弱性を評価する.
- 中国からの航空旅行量に基づいてCOVID-19の感染リスクを評価する.
- 疫病の発生を検知し対応する国の能力を分析する.
主な方法:
- 感染した中国の州からアフリカへの航空旅行データを用いて輸入リスクの推定.
- WHOの国際保健規則の監視と評価の枠組みを通じて,国の準備を評価した.
- 感染性疾患の脆弱性指数を用いて 国の脆弱性を測定した.
- 特定の中国の地域への露出に基づいたグループ化国.
主要な成果:
- 輸入リスクが最も高い国 (エジプト,アルジェリア,南アフリカ) は,中等から高い対応能力を有しています.
- 中等リスクの国 (ナイジェリア,エチオピア,スーダン,アンゴラ,タンザニア,ガーナ,ケニア) は,能力が変動し,脆弱性が高い.
- 特定の中国省 (広東,福建,北京) に関連した3つの国クラスターを特定した.
結論:
- アフリカ諸国は,COVID-19に対する備えを強化しています.
- 緊急の資源配分,監視,能力構築は 適度なリスクがあり 準備が悪い国にとって 極めて重要です
- これらの分野を優先することで,輸入された症例の検出が改善され,新型コロナウイルス感染症2019の感染を制限できます.
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