COVID-19 と イタリア: 次は?
Andrea Remuzzi1, Giuseppe Remuzzi2
1Department of Management Information and Production Engineering, University of Bergamo, Dalmine, Italy.
Lancet (London, England)
|March 18, 2020
まとめ
COVID-19 パンデミックはイタリアのヘルスケアシステムに負担をかけ,集中治療室は容量に迫っている. 予測では,増加するSARS-CoV-2感染を管理するために,病院のベッドなどのリソースが不可欠であることが示されています.
科学分野:
- 流行病学について
- 公衆衛生
- 感染症
背景:
- 深刻な急性呼吸器症候群コロナウイルス2 (SARS-CoV-2) の世界規模での急速な感染拡大は,緊急の医療制度の準備を必要とする.
- イタリアは,SARS-CoV-2肺炎で集中治療を必要とする患者の増加を管理する上で大きな課題に直面しています.
研究 の 目的:
- イタリアにおけるSARS-CoV-2感染の傾向を分析する.
- 集中治療資源の需要を予測する
- 医療当局と政治指導者に情報を提供して 効果的な資源配分を図る
主な方法:
- イタリアにおけるSARS-CoV-2患者の毎日報告された集中治療率の分析 (2020年3月1日〜11日).
- 指数関数的な成長パターンに基づく感染傾向の抽象化.
- 中国の湖北省での流行パターンとの比較
主要な成果:
- 2020年3月1日~11日の間に,イタリアの集中治療室の患者は,活発に感染している患者の9%~11%を占めた.
- 継続的な指数関数的な増加は,1週間以内に3万人の感染者を予測し,4月中旬までに4000人までの病院のベッドが必要です.
- トレンドの逆転の可能性はありますが,様々な封じ込め戦略のために予測できません.
結論:
- イタリアの医療制度は,COVID-19の発生により,迫り来る能力の課題に直面しています.
- 人員やベッドを含む緊急のリソース配分は,エスカレートする状況を管理するために不可欠です.
- 国際的な比較は,公衆衛生の介入に基づくアウトブレイクの軌跡の変動性を強調しています.
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