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人為的な温暖化による北米の大干ばつへの大きな貢献
A Park Williams1, Edward R Cook2, Jason E Smerdon2
1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA. williams@ldeo.columbia.edu.
まとめ
北米南西部の2000年から2018年の干ばつ時期は,西暦800年以来の2番目に乾燥した時期でした. 人類が引き起こした気候変動は この深刻な干ばつを著しく悪化させ 歴史的な大干ばつに匹敵しました
科学分野:
- 古代気候学
- 気候科学
- 水学
背景:
- 南西北アメリカ (SWNA) は,21世紀の深刻な干ばつを経験しています.
- この干ばつが 中世の大干ばつに 比較され 気候変動の役割について疑問を投げかけています
研究 の 目的:
- 2000年から2018年のSWNAの干ばつの深刻さを長期的に評価する.
- 最近の干ばつに対する 人為的な気候変動の影響を定量化する.
主な方法:
- 干ばつ状態を分析するために水学モデルを使用した.
- 夏の土壌の水分を 樹輪で再構築した
- 人為的な傾向を推定するために,気候モデルの出力を使用した.
主要な成果:
- 2000年から2018年の干ばつが,西暦800年以降で2番目に乾燥した19年期であり,その次は1500年代後半の大干ばつである.
- 人類による温暖化は 干ばつの深刻さに大きく貢献した.
- 気候モデルによると 干ばつの重度の47%は 人間の影響によるものです
結論:
- SWNAの最近の干ばつ軌跡は 歴史的な大干ばつに匹敵します
- 人為的な気候変動は SWNAの現在の深刻な干ばつ状態の主要な要因です.
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