フランスにおけるSARS-CoV-2の負担を推定する
Henrik Salje1,2,3, Cécile Tran Kiem1,4, Noémie Lefrancq1
1Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, UMR2000, CNRS, Paris, France.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|May 15, 2020
まとめ
フランス
科学分野:
- 流行病学
- 公衆衛生
- 感染症モデリング
背景:
- 重症急性呼吸器症候群コロナウイルス2型 (SARS-CoV-2型) パンデミックはフランスに重大な影響を及ぼし,2020年3月17日に全国的なロックダウンが必要となった.
- パンデミックの影響と人口の免疫を理解することは,公衆衛生戦略にとって極めて重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- フランスにおけるSARS-CoV-2感染に対するロックダウン措置の影響を推定する.
- 集団の免疫レベルと将来の感染波への影響を評価する.
主な方法:
- 国内での入院と死亡率のデータに適用された数学的モデルを使用した.
- 年齢層と性別を問わず,入院率と死亡率を含む主要な流行病学的パラメータの推定.
- ロックダウンによる生殖数の減少 (R0) を計算した.
主要な成果:
- ロックダウンは生殖率を2.90から0.67に減少させました.これは77%の減少です.
- 2020年5月11日までにフランスの人口の5.3% (210万人から60万人) が感染すると予測されている.
- 全ての年齢層で男性より高い入院率と死亡率を特定した.
- 死亡率は0. 5% (0. 3- 0. 9%) であり,年齢による増加が顕著で,< 20例では0. 001%から≥ 80例では8. 3%であった.
結論:
- 2020年5月までに達成された集団免疫は,制御措置が完全に解除された場合,SARS-CoV-2の潜在的な第2波を防ぐには不十分であった.
- 封鎖措置はウイルスの感染を大幅に減らすのに効果的でした.
- 年齢と性別は,SARS-CoV-2感染による重篤な結果に影響を与える重要な要因です.
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