ヨーロッパにおけるCOVID-19に対する非医薬品介入の影響を推定する
Seth Flaxman1, Swapnil Mishra2, Axel Gandy1
1Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Nature
|June 9, 2020
まとめ
ロックダウンを含む主要な非医薬品介入は,重症急性呼吸器症候群コロナウイルス2 (SARS-CoV-2) の感染拡大を欧州11カ国で効果的に制御した. これらの対策により,生殖数 (Rt) が1以下になり,疫病の制御が示されました.
科学分野:
- 疫学と公衆衛生
- 感染症モデリング
- ウイルス学
背景:
- 重症急性呼吸器症候群コロナウイルス2 (SARS-CoV-2) の急速な感染は,2019年コロナウイルス病 (COVID-19) のヨーロッパ全土での流行を引き起こした.
- ヨーロッパ諸国は,感染を緩和するために,学校閉鎖や国家閉鎖を含む非医薬品介入 (NPI) を実施した.
研究 の 目的:
- 11カ国におけるSARS-CoV-2の伝播に対する主要なNPIの影響を評価する.
- パンデミック初期 (2020年2月~5月) の間,時間によって変化する生殖数 (Rt) を減らすための介入の効果を推定する.
主な方法:
- 過去の伝染を推定するために,観測されたCOVID-19の死亡から逆算する数学的モデリングアプローチが採用されました.
- このモデルは,感染と死亡の間の時間遅れを組み込み,Rtの堅実な推定のために,各国のデータを部分的にまとめました.
- 感染症死亡率などの流行病学的パラメータは固定され,モデルは介入に対する即時反応を想定した.
主要な成果:
- 11カ国で実施された介入は,繁殖数 (Rt) を1以下に減らすのに十分であり,高い確率で (> 99%) 流行を制御することができました.
- 2020年5月4日までに,調査対象国全体で推定1200万から150万人がSARS-CoV-2に感染しており,これは人口の3.2%から4.0%を占めています.
- ロックダウンやその他の主要なNPIは,SARS-CoV-2の感染を減らすのに有意な効果を示した.
結論:
- 主要な非医薬品介入,特にロックダウンは,ヨーロッパでSARS-CoV-2の感染拡大を抑制するのに非常に効果的でした.
- SARS-CoV-2の伝播を制御し,将来のアウトブレイクを防ぐために,NPIの継続的な実施が推奨されています.
- この研究は,パンデミック管理における公衆衛生対策の重要な役割を強調しています.
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