過去500年に比べ,現在のヨーロッパでは洪水が多く発生しています
Günter Blöschl1, Andrea Kiss2, Alberto Viglione3
1Institute of Hydraulic Engineering and Water Resources Management, Vienna University of Technology, Vienna, Austria. bloeschl@hydro.tuwien.ac.at.
Nature
|July 24, 2020
まとめ
ここ数十年でヨーロッパは 500年で最も洪水が多かった時期を 経験しています 現在の洪水が多い時代は 温暖で 季節性も顕著です
科学分野:
- 環境科学
- 気候科学
- 水学
背景:
- 川の洪水の頻度と規模に対する 気候変動の影響について懸念があります
- 歴史的なデータは,過去にヨーロッパで洪水が多かったことを示していますが,長期間の比較はデータ解像度とシリーズ数によって制限されています.
研究 の 目的:
- 最近の数十年を ヨーロッパの洪水の歴史と比べてみましょう
- この時期の洪水が前例のないものなのか 判断する.
主な方法:
- ヨーロッパ全域のドキュメンタリー証拠から100以上の高解像度 (サブ年次) の歴史的な洪水シリーズを新しいデータベースにまとめました.
- この 500 年の洪水の歴史に対して,最近の数十年の分析です.
主要な成果:
- 過去30年間 (1990年~2016年) は,過去500年間でヨーロッパで最も洪水が多かった時期の一つです.
- 最近の洪水の多い時期は,過去の洪水の多い時期と比較して,より高い気温とより顕著な洪水の季節性によって特徴付けられています.
- 洪水に富んだ9つの異なる時期とその関連地域が特定され,1560年−1580年,1760年−1800年,1840年−1870年は過去における重要な出来事として記されている.
結論:
- 温暖化と季節の変化により,ヨーロッパでは現在の洪水が多い時期は例外的なものです.
- 洪水リスクの最近の変化に対応するために,プロセスベースの高度な洪水リスク評価ツールと適応管理戦略が必要である.
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