物理 に 基づく 方法 で,差し迫っ て いる 大きな 太陽 フレア を 予測 できる
Kanya Kusano1, Tomoya Iju2, Yumi Bamba3,4
1Institute for Space-Earth Environmental Research, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601, Japan. kusano@nagoya-u.jp.
Science (New York, N.Y.)
|August 1, 2020
まとめ
新しい物理ベースのモデルである κ-スキームは,重要な磁気動力学的不安定性を特定することによって,大きな太陽フレアを正確に予測します. このモデルは磁気回転フルス密度を使用して,フレア発生,位置,サイズを決定し,宇宙天気予報を改善します.
科学分野:
- * 太陽物理学
- * 宇宙天気
- * プラズマ物理学
背景:
- * 太陽フレアは地球の宇宙天候に影響を与えるエネルギー的な冠状の出来事です.
- * 現在の太陽フレア予測は,未知の発生メカニズムによる経験的方法に依存しています.
- * フレアトリガーの理解は,予測能力を改善するために不可欠です.
研究 の 目的:
- * 大きな太陽フレアを予測するための物理ベースのモデル, κ-スキームを導入する.
- * マグネト・ヒドロダイナミック 不安定性と磁気再接続がフレア開始における役割を調査する.
- * フレアの発生,位置,大きさを決定する重要なパラメータを特定する.
主な方法:
- * 物理に基づく予測モデルである κ-スキーマの開発.
- * 2008年から2019年までのX級太陽フレアの分析 (太陽周期24).
- * 極性逆転線付近の磁気回転フルス密度の試験
主要な成果:
- * k-スキームは,最も近い大規模な太陽フレアを成功裏に予測します.
- * 限られた数のフレアは,モデルの予測に例外でした.
- * 極性逆転線近くの磁気回転フルス密度は重要な予測要因である.
結論:
- * κ-スキームは,太陽フレアの予測に物理に基づいたアプローチを提供します.
- * 磁気回転フルースの密度は,太陽フレアの特性を決定する重要な要因です.
- * この研究は,太陽のフレアメカニズムと予測の理解を進める.
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