州全体の学校閉鎖と米国におけるCOVID-19の発生率と死亡率との関連
Katherine A Auger1,2,3,4, Samir S Shah1,2,3,4,5, Troy Richardson4
1Division of Hospital Medicine, Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, Ohio.
JAMA
|August 4, 2020
まとめ
米国における早期の学校閉鎖は,2019年のコロナウイルス感染症 (COVID-19) の発生率と死亡率を大幅に減少させた. 最大の利益は,COVID-19症例が低かったときに閉鎖を実施した州で観察されました.
科学分野:
- 公衆衛生
- 流行病学について
- 感染症対策
背景:
- コロナウイルス病2019 (COVID-19) の感染拡大を抑えるために,各州は学校閉鎖を含む非医薬品介入を実施しました.
- COVID-19 制御のための学校閉鎖の有効性と最適なタイミングは,パンデミック初期に不確実でした.
研究 の 目的:
- 米国におけるCOVID-19の発生率と死亡率との学校閉鎖とそのタイミングの関連性を調査する.
- 早期の学校閉鎖と遅めの学校閉鎖が,人口レベルでのCOVID-19アウトカムに与える影響を定量化するためです.
主な方法:
- 2020 年 3 月 9 日から 2020 年 5 月 7 日までのデータを分析した米国の人口ベースの観察研究.
- 遅滞期間の割り込みタイムシリーズ分析を用いて,他の非医薬品介入をコントロールした.
- ネガティブ・バイノミアル・リグレッション・モデルでは,最初の症例発生率によって階層化された,学校閉鎖時間とCOVID-19の発生率/死亡率との関連を評価した.
主要な成果:
- 学校の閉鎖は,毎週のCOVID-19発生率 (-62%) と死亡率 (-58%) の減少と大きく関連していました.
- 累積的なCOVID-19発生率が低い状態で学校を閉鎖した州で,ポジティブな影響が最も顕著でした.
- 学校を早期に閉鎖すると,推定10万人当たり128.7人の症例と1.5人の死亡が減少しました.
結論:
- 米国での学校閉鎖は,研究期間中にCOVID-19の発生率と死亡率の減少と一時的に関連していた.
- 初期の学校閉鎖は,特に初期にCOVID-19の発生率が低かったとき,最も大幅な減少をもたらしました.
- 効果的ではあるが,他の同時介入の貢献は完全に排除できない.
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