熱と炭素の結合は,循環の変化による海洋温暖化を示しています
Ben Bronselaer1,2,3,4, Laure Zanna5,6
1Atmospheric, Oceanic and Planetary Physics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. benjamin.bronselaer@cantab.net.
Nature
|August 14, 2020
まとめ
地球温暖化は 累積的な炭素排出量と関連しており 海洋は 熱と炭素の貯蔵に 重要な役割を果たしています 海洋循環は温暖化パターンに 大きな影響を及ぼしますが 気候モデルでは これらの複雑な過程を 正確に表すのに苦労しています
科学分野:
- 地球システム科学
- 気候モデリング
- 海洋学
背景:
- 人為的な地球温暖化は 累積的な炭素排出量と相関しています
- 海洋の熱と炭素の貯蔵は 海洋の輸送と循環によって影響を受けます
- 現在の気候モデルは,観測された海洋温暖化パターンと循環をシミュレートする際に不正確さを示しています.
研究 の 目的:
- 海洋の熱と炭素の吸収の間の 線形的な関係を確立するために
- 海洋循環の変化が観測された海洋温暖化に与える影響を評価する.
- 海洋温暖化パターンを把握する気候モデルのパフォーマンスを評価する.
主な方法:
- 地球の固有のシステムパラメータに基づいて,海洋の熱と炭素吸収の間の線形関係を確立した.
- 海洋循環の変化が海洋温暖化パターンに与える影響を分析するために,確立された関係を活用した.
- 観測された海洋温暖化パターンを第5回カップリングモデル相互比較プロジェクト (CMIP5) のモデルによるシミュレーションと比較した.
主要な成果:
- 歴史的な海洋温暖化パターンは,海洋の熱再分配によって大きく形作られ,CMIP5モデルはそれを模倣することができない.
- 予測される海洋熱貯蔵パターンは主に産業化以前の海洋循環によって決定され,循環の変化ではありません.
- 気候モデルは,熱の再分配と比較して,工業化以前の循環に基づいた熱貯蔵のシミュレーションに優れたスキルを示しています.
結論:
- 循環による海洋熱の再配分は,歴史的な海洋温暖化パターンの主要な要因ですが,モデルでは十分に反映されていません.
- 将来の海洋温暖化パターンは,主に工業化以前の海洋循環によって 予測される可能性が高い.
- 海洋循環をシミュレートする気候モデルの精度が向上することは 将来の気候予測に不可欠です
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