南極の氷棚が,融水による破裂に脆弱である
Ching-Yao Lai1, Jonathan Kingslake2,3, Martin G Wearing4
1Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA. cylai@ldeo.columbia.edu.
Nature
|August 28, 2020
まとめ
大気温暖化により 南極の氷棚は水力破裂によって 崩壊する恐れがあります 新しい研究では 氷床の60%が 溶けた水で浸水し 海面上昇を加速させる可能性があることが 明らかになりました
科学分野:
- 氷河学
- 気候科学
- 地理学
背景:
- 大気温暖化により 表面の融解が増加し 水力破裂により 南極の氷棚に 脅威が加えられています
- 溶けた水が断層を大きくし 氷床が崩壊し 氷の流れが加速し 海面が上昇します
- 南極の氷棚の地域が 水力破裂に脆弱であるかは ほとんど不明である.
研究 の 目的:
- 南極の氷棚を支える地域の水力破裂に対する脆弱性を評価する.
- 水力破裂による不安定性の危険性のある特定の地域を特定する.
主な方法:
- 衛星画像を用いて南極の氷棚の表面の断層をマッピングするために ディープコンボリューションニューラルネットワーク (DCNN) を訓練した.
- 骨折の形成を予測するために,線形弾性骨折力学に基づく骨折の安定性図を開発した.
- 水浸水シナリオの下の不安定性を予測するために,適用された断裂力学理論.
主要な成果:
- DCNNは理論上の予測と一致して 骨折のマッピングに成功しました
- 氷床を支える南極の氷棚の60% ±10%は水浸しによる水分破裂に脆弱である.
- 表面の融解が増加し,水力破裂を引き起こす可能性のある,広範囲にわたる脆弱な地域が特定されました.
結論:
- 南極の氷棚を支える多くの地域は,融水に対する現在の回復力にもかかわらず,水分破裂に脆弱です.
- 大気温暖化による地表の融解が増加すると これらの脆弱な地域が水に浸され 不安定が引き起こされます
- これらの脆弱な地域は 気候変動が氷床の質量バランスと海面上昇に 大きく影響する地域です
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