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蝶効果と地球温暖化に対するエルニーニョの自己調節反応
Wenju Cai1,2, Benjamin Ng3, Tao Geng4,3
1Key Laboratory of Physical Oceanography-Institute for Advanced Ocean Studies, Ocean University of China and Qingdao National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology, Qingdao, China. Wenju.cai@csiro.au.
Nature
|September 4, 2020
まとめ
エルニーニョ・サザン・オシレーション (ENSO) の条件の小さな初期変化は,非常に異なる将来の変動につながる可能性があります. このバタフライ効果は,ENSOが温室効果温暖化にどのように反応するかに影響し,早期抑制は将来の変動性を高める可能性があります.
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 海洋学
- 大気科学
背景:
- エルニーニョとラニーニャは,エルニーニョ-南方振動 (ENSO) と呼ばれ,非常に重大な非線形気候現象です.
- ENSOは非対称性を示し,エルニニョの暖かい異常はラニニャの寒い異常よりも大きい.
- 温室効果の上昇はENSO現象の頻度を増やすと予測されていますが,モデル予測は内部変動により大きく異なります.
研究 の 目的:
- ENSOの可変性に対する初期無限微小な波動の影響を調査する.
- ENSOの初期変動が将来の温室効果温暖化への反応にどのように影響するか理解する.
- ENSOの変動を異なる時間スケールで結びつける自己調節メカニズムを探求する.
主な方法:
- クープレッド・モデル相互比較プロジェクト (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) を含む大規模な気候モデルを活用した.
- バタフライ効果をシミュレートするために,同一の初期条件に無限小さな乱射を導入しました.
- ENSOの熱阻害による海洋の累積的な熱損失とその海洋層化への影響を分析した.
主要な成果:
- 初期条件に対する微小な乱れは,非常に異なる初期ENSO変性を誘導する.
- より高い初期変動は,より大きな海洋熱損失につながり,上部海洋層を減少させます.
- この自己調節は,いくつかのシナリオで,後の温室効果温暖化下で,ENSOの変動率のより小さな増加をもたらします.
結論:
- 自己調節メカニズムは,ENSOの変動を時間とともに結びつけ,気候変動への対応に影響を与えます.
- 温室効果によるENSOの変動が最初は内部変動によって抑制されれば,将来のENSOの変動は増加する可能性があります.
- この発見は,変化する気候における複数の時間スケールにおける ENSOのダイナミクスの新しい視点を提供します.
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