ブラジルのアマゾンのSARS-CoV-2の感染率の4分の3は,大体緩和されていない流行期間に発生している
Lewis F Buss1, Carlos A Prete2, Claudia M M Abrahim3
1Departamento de Molestias Infecciosas e Parasitarias and Instituto de Medicina Tropical da Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
まとめ
ブラジルのマナウスのCOVID-19感染率は2020年10月までに76%に達し,広範囲にわたる未緩和の流行を示しています. この高い感染率は,2019年のコロナウイルス感染症の感染制御が不十分であることの深刻な影響を強調しています.
科学分野:
- 流行病学
- 免疫学
背景:
- 深刻な急性呼吸器症候群コロナウイルス2型 (SARS-CoV-2) は,ブラジル北部のマナウスで急速な流行を引き起こした.
- マナウスの流行はほとんど緩和されず 最終的な規模を推定する必要がありました
研究 の 目的:
- 血清学的データを用いて,ブラジルのマナウスのCOVID-19感染率を推定する.
- マナウスの攻撃率と サンパウロの攻撃率を 比較するためです
主な方法:
- 免疫グロブリンG (IgG) 抗体を検出するために,献血者の便利なサンプルを使用した.
- 検知できない抗体反応と抗体の減少については,統計的修正が適用された.
主要な成果:
- 2020年6月までに,マナウスの人口の44%が検出可能なIgG抗体を持っていた.
- マナウスの推定COVID-19感染率は6月に66%であったが,10月までに76%に上昇した.
- サンパウロの攻撃率は10月に29%だったと推定されています.
結論:
- コントロールされていないCOVID-19は,人口のかなりの部分に感染する可能性があります.
- マナウスはサンパウロと比較して 攻撃率が著しく高かった.
- 高い発作率は死亡率と関連している.
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