気候政策における効率と主権のトレードオフの定量化
Nico Bauer1, Christoph Bertram2, Anselm Schultes2
1Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany. nico.bauer@pik-potsdam.de.
Nature
|December 10, 2020
まとめ
グローバルな気候目標には 費用の公平な分担が必要です この研究では ハイブリッドの炭素価格と 金融移転が 経済的効率と国家主権のバランスをとり 開発途上国の高いコストを 避けることを示しています
科学分野:
- 気候科学
- 環境経済学
- 国際政策
背景:
- パリ協定は,地球温暖化を制限し,公平性と責任の差異を強調することを目的としています.
- 炭素価格の統一によるキャップ・アンド・トレード政策は費用対効果が高くても 発展途上国の経済に負担となり,主権問題も引き起こす可能性があります.
- 努力の公平な分配を達成するには,多くの場合,大規模な国際的資金移転が必要になります.
研究 の 目的:
- 費用対効果,公平性,国家主権のバランスをとる代替気候政策戦略を調査する.
- 炭素価格の統一,炭素価格の差別化,国際金融移転のトレードオフを分析する.
- 異なる政策の組み合わせによる 財政と効率の影響を定量化する.
主な方法:
- 政策分析のために統合評価モデル"REMIND-MAgPIE"を使用した.
- 3つの政策シナリオを比較した. 統一炭素価格による金融移転, 移転なしの異なる炭素価格, ハイブリッドアプローチ.
- 国際金融移転と経済効率の損失の定量化現在の価値
主要な成果:
- 均一な炭素価格設定の下での均等化努力には4兆4千億ドルの移転が必要であり,移転なしでは極端な価格差異 (>100倍) が必要であり,2兆6千億ドルの効率損失が発生します.
- ハイブリッド政策は非線形的なトレードオフを示しています. 炭素価格の適度な偏差は,効率のマイナーな損失で転送ニーズを大幅に削減します.
- 適度な金融移転は,炭素価格の格差を縮小することによって,効率を大幅に改善します.
結論:
- 温和な炭素価格の差異と金融移転を組み合わせたハイブリッド気候政策は,グローバルな気候目標を公平に達成するための実行可能な経路を提供します.
- これらの戦略は 発展途上国の経済的負担を軽減し 国家の主権を保ちます
- これらのトレードオフを理解することは,効果的な気候とセクター別政策の組み合わせを設計する上で極めて重要です.
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