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気候変動による湖の熱波
R Iestyn Woolway1,2, Eleanor Jennings3, Tom Shatwell4
1Centre for Freshwater and Environmental Studies, Dundalk Institute of Technology, Dundalk, Ireland. riwoolway@gmail.com.
Nature
|January 21, 2021
まとめ
湖の熱波は 極端に温暖な地表水で 気候変動により 世界的に激化し 長くなるでしょう これは湖の生物多様性と生態系サービスに重大なリスクをもたらします.
科学分野:
- 環境科学
- 気候科学
- リムノジー
背景:
- 湖の生態系は 温度変化や 極端な熱に脆弱です
- 湖の熱波と 地球温暖化によるその未来については ほとんど知られていません
研究 の 目的:
- 1901年から2099年までの湖の熱波の変化を調査する.
- 将来の湖の熱波の強度と持続時間を,異なる排出シナリオで予測する.
主な方法:
- 衛星観測と数値モデルを利用した.
- 世界中で何百もの湖を分析しました
主要な成果:
- 湖の熱波は2100年までに 劇的に高温で長くなる見込みです
- 代表的な濃度経路 (RCP) 8. 5では,強度は5. 4°C,持続時間は95. 5日になる.
- RCP 2.6では,強度が4. 0°C,持続時間は27. 0日になる.
- より深い湖は より長く続くが より強い熱波を経験します
結論:
- 湖の熱波は温暖化効果を悪化させ 湖の物理的・化学的性質に影響を与えます
- 熱波の持続時間が長くなり,一部の湖では恒常的な熱波状態になる可能性があります.
- 水中の生物多様性,生態系の回復力,湖がもたらす社会的な恩恵を脅かしています.
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