米国で再発したCOVID-19の流行を支えている年齢層
Mélodie Monod1, Alexandra Blenkinsop1, Xiaoyue Xi1
1Department of Mathematics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
まとめ
20歳から49歳までの若年層は,米国でCOVID-19の感染の再興を牽引しています. ワクチンのような介入を この年齢層にターゲットにすることは 流行を制御し 死者を防ぐための鍵です
科学分野:
- エピデミオロジー
- 公衆衛生
- 感染症モデリング
背景:
- 新型コロナウイルス病 (COVID-19) の感染が2020年半ばに米国とヨーロッパで再発した.
- COVID-19を制御し,公衆衛生介入の緩和を導くには,年齢人口統計を理解することが重要です.
研究 の 目的:
- 米国における年齢別移動傾向とCOVID-19死亡率データを分析する.
- SARS-CoV-2 の感染を継続させる主な年齢層を特定する.
- 再興するCOVID-19の流行を食い止めるための標的型介入戦略を明らかにする.
主な方法:
- 米国で1000万人以上の年齢別移動データを集約した分析
- 移動傾向と年齢別COVID-19死亡率のメカニズム的関連
- 年齢特有の伝播動態と生殖数の推定
主要な成果:
- 2020年10月現在,20歳から49歳までの個人が再発したSARS-CoV-2の感染の主な要因であり,生殖数は1人を大幅に上回っている.
- 推定65%のCOVID-19感染は,米国で20歳から49歳までの個人から発生した.
- 年齢層の移動パターンは 感染率の上昇と相関しています
結論:
- 20歳から49歳までの成人は,現在のCOVID-19感染の動態を制御する上で極めて重要です.
- 伝染を阻害するワクチンを含む介入を この集団に向けることは 疫病の制御に不可欠です
- この標的型のアプローチは,COVID-19によるさらなる死亡を防止し,再発の発生を阻止するのに役立ちます.
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