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1.5°Cの温暖化制限を追求する中国の努力を評価する
Hongbo Duan1, Sheng Zhou2, Kejun Jiang3
1School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China. hbduan@ucas.ac.cn zhshinet@tsinghua.edu.cn detlef.vanvuuren@pbl.nl sywang@amss.ac.cn.
まとめ
1.5°Cの地球温暖化限界を達成するには 中国が炭素排出とエネルギー消費を大幅に削減する必要があります ネガティブ・エミッション・テクノロジーと電力部門の脱炭素化は中国にとって極めて重要です.
科学分野:
- 気候変動科学
- エネルギーシステム分析
- 環境政策
背景:
- 温暖化を1.5°Cに制限することに焦点を当てています.
- 中国のエネルギー消費と排出量は 世界的な気候目標にとって 極めて重要です
研究 の 目的:
- 1.5°Cの温暖化限界の下での中国の排出経路とエネルギー再構築を評価する.
- 必要な二酸化炭素削減の取り組みと,それに関連する中国の経済的コストを定量化すること.
主な方法:
- マルチモデルの研究アプローチを使用した.
- 排出削減シナリオを"政策なし"のベースラインと比較した.
- セクター別排出量削減の違いと技術の役割を分析した.
主要な成果:
- 中国は炭素排出量を90%以上削減し,エネルギー消費量を39%削減しなければならない ("政策なし"とは対照的に).
- ネガティブ・エミッション・テクノロジーが大きく貢献している (約3%) 2050年までに20%削減する).
- 2050年までに電力部門の完全な脱炭素化が モデル全体で一貫して求められています
結論:
- 1.5°Cの持続には 中国のエネルギーシステムに 根本的な変化が必要です
- 2050年までにGDPの2.8%から5.7%の潜在コストを伴う大規模な投資と政策の実施が必要である.
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