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21世紀における海面上昇に対する陸氷の予測
Tamsin L Edwards1, Sophie Nowicki2,3, Ben Marzeion4,5
1Department of Geography, King's College London, London, UK. tamsin.edwards@kcl.ac.uk.
Nature
|May 6, 2021
まとめ
地球温暖化を1.5°Cに制限すると 陸上の氷から海面の上昇を半分に減らせるでしょう しかし,悲観的な仮定では,南極の氷の損失は予測を大幅に増加させ,沿岸の洪水に対する堅実な適応計画を要求します.
科学分野:
- * 気候科学
- * 氷河学
- * 海面上昇に関する研究
背景:
- * 陸氷による世界の平均海面上昇 (SLR) の正確な予測は,気候変動への適応に不可欠です.
- * 過去の予測では,時代遅れの社会経済シナリオと気候モデルが用いられ,不確実性が十分に探求されていなかった.
- * 国際的なプロジェクトでは,モデルの不確実性や最新の気候シナリオの調整された探求が欠けていました.
研究 の 目的:
- * 最新の社会経済シナリオでSLRへの陸氷の寄与率の確率分布を推定する.
- * 将来の海面上昇に及ぼす地球温暖化レベルの影響を定量化する.
- * 氷床と氷河モデルの予測における不確実性を調査する.
主な方法:
- * 氷床と氷河のモデルを統計的にエミュレーションして,大規模なプロジェクション・アンサンブルを生成する.
- * 最新の社会経済シナリオを気候予測に活用する.
- * 様々なコンピュータモデルから生じる不確実性の調整された探求.
主要な成果:
- *温暖化を1.5°Cに制限すると,現在の約束値 (25cmSLE) に比べて,SLRへの陸氷の平均貢献は2100 (13cmSLE) 減半する.
- * 氷河は,陸上の氷の総SLRの半分を占めています.
- * 南極の氷の減少予測は高い不確実性を示し,リスク回避シナリオは5倍に増加し,現在の政策では平均42cmのSLEになります.
結論:
- * 激しい気候緩和 (1.5°C温暖化) は,陸氷による海面上昇を大幅に減少させる.
- * 南極の氷床への対応の不確実性が高いため,適応計画の最悪シナリオを考慮する必要がある.
- 気候政策と南極の氷の動態がよりよく制限されるまで,強力な沿岸の適応戦略が必要です.
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