NHS COVID-19 アプリの疫学的な影響
Chris Wymant1, Luca Ferretti1, Daphne Tsallis2
1Big Data Institute, Li Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Nature
|May 12, 2021
まとめ
国立保健サービス (NHS) のCOVID-19アプリは,イングランドとウェールズで推定28万4,000~59万4,000人の症例を回避した. アプリの使用量の増加は,デジタル・コンタクト・トレーシングをサポートする COVID-19 症例数の減少と相関しています.
科学分野:
- 公衆衛生
- 流行病学
- デジタル・ヘルス
背景:
- デジタル・コンタクト・トレーシング・アプリは,COVID-19の流行を抑えるために登場しました.
- 理論的には支持されているが,これらのアプリの実際の疫学的な影響は不明のままである.
- 国立保健サービス (NHS) のCOVID-19アプリは2020年9月にイングランドとウェールズで開始されました.
研究 の 目的:
- イングランドとウェールズにおけるNHS COVID-19アプリの疫学的影響を調査する.
- このアプリの使用によって回避されたCOVID-19症例の数を推定する.
- アプリの普及率と症例減少率の関係を見極める
主な方法:
- 2020年9月から12月のアプリ使用データ分析で,約1650万人のユーザーを対象としています.
- 手動で追跡されたコンタクトと比較して,アプリで通知された個体に対する二次攻撃率 (SAR) の推定.
- 予防された症例を推定するために使用された2つの補完的なアプローチ:通知/SARに基づくモデリングと地方当局の統計的比較.
主要な成果:
- Appは約170万件の暴露通知を送信しました
- アプリで通知された個人の二次攻撃率は6%で,手動追跡に似ています.
- 予防された症例の推定数は28万4,000件 (モデル化) から59万4,000件 (統計分析) であった.
- 報告に同意した1人のCOVID-19症例に対して,約1人の症例が回避されました.
- アプリの利用率の1%の増加は,0.8%から2.3%の症例減少と関連していました.
結論:
- NHSのCOVID-19アプリは,COVID-19の症例を回避する上で重要な影響を示しました.
- デジタル・コンタクト・トレーシング・アプリの 継続的な開発と導入を 支援しています
- これらのツールは 重要な公衆衛生の介入であり ワクチンによる広範な保護を 待っている間に特に有効です
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