エコロジカル・レジリエンスの尺度としての脱出時間

Babak M S Arani^1,2, Stephen R Carpenter³, Leo Lahti⁴

¹Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands.

Science (New York, N.Y.)

|June 11, 2021

まとめ

生態の回復力つまりシステムの障害からの回復能力は平均寿命を用いて推定できますこの新しい方法は,徐々に変化し,生態系における重要な移行を予測します.

科学分野:

エコロジー
複雑なシステム科学
環境科学

背景:

伝統的に大きな単一の干渉からの回復を測定しています
リアルワールドのシステムでは,しばしば相乗効果があり,小規模な混乱が状態の移行につながります.
現存するレジリエンス指標はこれらの複雑な動態を完全に捉えることはできません

研究の目的:

生態学的回復力を評価するための新しい方法を提案する.
自然の変動と相乗効果の混乱を考慮する.
生態系における重要な変化の早期警告システムを提供すること.

主な方法:

タイムシリーズのデータを活用してモデルを開発した.
このモデルは,システムダイナミクスのストキャスティックとデターミニストの両方を組み込みます.
回復力の測定として,引き寄せの盆地からの推定平均脱出時間.

主要な成果:

平均寿命が回復力の指標として機能することを示しました
開発されたモデルはシステムの変動性を効果的に捉え,移行の可能性を予測します.
このアプローチは,累積的な干渉に対する回復力を定量的に推定します.

結論:

平均寿命は生態学的回復力をより包括的に表しています
この方法は,ダイナミックなシステムの重要な移行を予測する能力を高めます.
このアプローチは,高解像度タイムシリーズデータの利用が増加するにつれて特に重要である.

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