ヨーロッパにおけるCOVID-19の再出現の混乱と持続

Philippe Lemey^1,2, Nick Ruktanonchai^3,4, Samuel L Hong⁵

¹Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Transplantation, Rega Institute, KU Leuven, Leuven, Belgium. philippe.lemey@kuleuven.be.

Nature

|June 30, 2021

まとめ

2020年6月以降にヨーロッパに導入された新しいSARS-CoV-2系は,COVID-19の再興を助長した. これらの新しい変種の拡散は,移動の緩和と局所感染率の低下と関連していました.

科学分野:

流行病学について
ゲノミクス
植物地理学

背景:

ヨーロッパは,最初の春の波の後,2020年の夏の終わりに,より致命的なCOVID-19の復活に直面しました.
リラックスした介入と夏の旅行がこの第2の波の原動力だと疑われています

研究の目的:

新たに導入された対持続的なSARS-CoV-2系統の欧州の復活への貢献を評価する.
ヨーロッパにおけるCOVID-19の生物地理的拡散をモデル化すること.

主な方法:

10カ国からのゲノム,移動,流行病学的データを統合した植物地理モデル.
系統導入と伝播のダイナミクスの分析

主要な成果:

2020年夏の終わりに流通していた系統の半分以上は,6月15日以降の新規導入によるものです.
新しい系統の伝播の成功は,地元のCOVID-19発生率と逆に関連していました.
ウイルスの拡散は,規制の解除に伴うリスクを強調しています.

結論:

新しい系統の導入は,ヨーロッパでのCOVID-19の復活に大きく貢献しました.
効果的な封じ込めには国境を越えた移動手段の調整が必要で,特に伝染性の高い変種の場合です.
戦略はワクチン接種と並行してウイルスの拡散リスクを考慮しなければなりません

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