2020年の米国におけるCOVID-19の負担と特徴
Sen Pei1, Teresa K Yamana2, Sasikiran Kandula2
1Department of Environmental Health Sciences, Mailman School of Public Health, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA. sp3449@cumc.columbia.edu.
Nature
|August 26, 2021
まとめ
2020年,COVID-19のパンデミックは米国人口の約3分の1に感染し,地域感染率は主要都市でピークに達した. 感染による死亡率は年々減少した.
科学分野:
- 流行病学
- 公共衛生モデリング
- 感染症の動態
背景:
- COVID-19のパンデミックは2020年に米国に大きな影響を及ぼし,広範な健康および経済的混乱を引き起こしました.
- 多くの流行病学的特徴が報告されたが,米国におけるパンデミックの負担と特徴の包括的な定量化は欠けていた.
研究 の 目的:
- 2020年の米国におけるCOVID-19の全体的な負担と特徴を包括的に定量化すること.
- データを駆動したモデル-推論アプローチを使用して,ウイルスの重要で時間的に変動する流行病学的特性を推定する.
主な方法:
- 米国内の郡規模でCOVID-19の流行をシミュレートするために,データ主導のモデル推論アプローチを採用した.
- 確定率,集団の感受性,コミュニティ感染率,感染による死亡率を含む,時間によって変化する推定疫学的特性.
主要な成果:
- 米国におけるCOVID-19の全国確認率は,3月の11.3%から2020年12月の24.5%に増加した.
- 人口の感受性は2020年末までに69.0%に達し,米国の人口の約3分の1が感染していたことを示しています.
- 感染率は全国で0.8%を超え,都市部では2.4%に達し,感染死亡率は0.3%に低下した.
結論:
- この研究は,2020年の米国におけるCOVID-19の流行の負荷と動態の包括的な定量化を提供します.
- 調査結果は,感染率と人口の感受性の増加と,感染による死亡率の減少を強調しています.
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