非医薬品介入,ワクチン接種,イングランドにおけるSARS-CoV-2デルタ型:数学的モデリング研究
Raphael Sonabend1, Lilith K Whittles2, Natsuko Imai1
1MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Jameel Institute, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK.
Lancet (London, England)
|October 31, 2021
まとめ
イギリスのCOVID-19のロードマップは,ワクチン接種によって初期感染の増加を相殺することに成功しました. しかし,デルタ変異は,大きな入院の波を防ぐために,非医薬品介入 (NPI) の完全な解除を遅らせることを必要とした.
科学分野:
- 流行病学について
- 数学モデリング
- 公衆衛生政策
背景:
- イギリスのCOVID-19ロードマップでは,ワクチン接種と並行して,非医薬品介入 (NPI) を段階的に緩和することを概説した.
- SARS-CoV-2 デルタ変種の出現は,計画された再開戦略に重大な課題をもたらした.
研究 の 目的:
- イギリスのCOVID-19のロードマップ政策が流行の軌跡に与える影響を評価する.
- 将来の潜在的なCOVID-19波に対するデルタ変種とワクチン接種の影響をモデル化するためです.
- NPI の緩和のための異なるスケジュールを評価する.
主な方法:
- デルタ変種を含むワクチン接種と多株動態に拡張された数学的伝播モデルを使用した.
- 英語の監視データ (入院者数,占有率,血清発生率,PCR検査) を用いて,ベイジアン・エビデンス・シンセシスでモデルを校正した.
- 様々なNPIの緩和スケジュールと混合シナリオの下でのシミュレートされた流行経路
主要な成果:
- ロードマップは当初,感染拡大を相殺しましたが,デルタ変異の感染率が高いことがリスクをもたらしました.
- 2021年6月21日にNPIを完全に解除すると,毎日入院する患者数は3900人に達する可能性があるが,7月19日まで延期すると1400人に減少した.
- 流行経路は,デルタの伝染性,混合レベル,ワクチンの有効性に対する感受性を示した.
結論:
- NPIの緩和タイミングとワクチン接種のバランスをとることで,COVID-19の入院を軽減できます.
- デルタ変種は,さらなる流行を防ぐために,高いワクチン接種率でも,継続的なNPIを必要とします.
- 政策の緩和の間,懸念される変種,ワクチンの有効性,および摂取量の継続的なモニタリングは極めて重要です.
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