市場からの需要ショックによる限界石油の炭素影響
Mohammad S Masnadi1, Giacomo Benini2, Hassan M El-Houjeiri3
1Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA, USA. m.masnadi@pitt.edu.
Nature
|November 4, 2021
まとめ
石油需要の減少は 衝撃の大きさによって 炭素濃度に影響します 小さな需要の減少は 炭素濃度が高い重油を 置き換える一方 大きな衝撃は 炭素濃度に影響を 及ぼさない
科学分野:
- 環境科学
- エネルギー政策
- 経済学
背景:
- 新しい石油採掘技術は石油資源の多様性を高め,世界の石油供給のカーボンフットプリントを多様化する.
- 以前のライフサイクルアセスメント (LCA) 研究では,原油需要の減少が平均原油を代替すると仮定して,上流の排出の異質性は考慮されなかった.
研究 の 目的:
- 限界原油源のライフサイクルの温室効果ガスの影響を探求する.
- 石油需要の減少に最も敏感な生産者の上流炭素濃度 (CI) を特定する.
主な方法:
- 1,933の油田の生産収益性のエコノメトリックモデル (2015年の世界の供給の約9%) とその生産CIをリンクした.
- 3つの異なる石油市場構造の下での需要の減少に対するこれらの油田の反応を調査した.
主要な成果:
- 小規模な需要ショック (-2.5%の減少) は,主に世界の平均より25~54%高いCIを持つ重型原油を後押ししている.
- CIの影響の格差は,より大きな需要ショックで減少する.
- 市場構造と市場勢力を有する生産者の協調的な対応は,需要の減少によるCIの影響に影響を与えます.
結論:
- 石油需要の削減による炭素排出の利益は均一ではなく,需要削減の規模に大きく左右されます.
- 世界の石油市場の構造は,石油消費量の減少による全体的な炭素フットプリントの影響を決定する上で重要な役割を果たしています.
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