降雨量の変化が経済生産に与える影響

Maximilian Kotz^1,2, Anders Levermann^1,2,3, Leonie Wenz^4,5

¹Research Department of Complexity Science, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, Germany.

Nature

|January 13, 2022

まとめ

経済成長は,特に高所得国やサービスセクターでは,雨天と極端な降雨の増加によって妨げられています. 気候変動の経済的影響を評価するには,毎日の降雨量の分布を理解することが重要です.

科学分野:

気候科学
環境経済学
マクロ経済学

背景:

気候への影響のマクロ経済的な評価は,毎日の降雨量の分布をしばしば無視します.
日々の降雨パターンは複雑な社会的な影響と気候変動の影響を理解する上で極めて重要です

研究の目的:

日々の降雨量分布と経済成長の関係を分析する.
降雨量の変動によって異なるセクターと所得レベルがどのように影響を受けるかを調査する.

主な方法:

40年にわたる1,554の地域からの地方経済生産のグローバルパネルデータセットを使用しました.
雨天の頻度,極端な毎日の降雨量,年間降雨量総量,月間降雨量の偏差が経済成長率に与える影響を調査した.

主要な成果:

経済成長率は雨の日数や極端な毎日の降雨量により低下します
高所得国やサービス/製造業部門は,毎日の降雨量によって最も悪影響を受けています.
低所得の農業経済における降雨量増加の利点に関する以前の研究結果を補完しています

結論:

人為的な日々の極端な降雨の増幅は恐らく地球規模の悪影響をもたらすでしょう
気候と経済の相互作用を理解するには,複数の時間スケールとセクターでの降雨分布を評価することが不可欠です.
気候変動による経済的コストを定量化するために,毎日の降雨の影響を考慮してさらなる評価が必要である.

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