スヴァルバルドの氷河の変化は 2100 年までに氷河の量減少が 2 倍になると予測されています

Emily C Geyman^1,2, Ward J J van Pelt³, Adam C Maloof⁴

¹Norwegian Polar Institute, Fram Centre, Tromsø, Norway. egeyman@caltech.edu.

Nature

|January 20, 2022

まとめ

氷河の融解は海面上昇に大きく貢献していますスヴァルバルド

科学分野:

氷河学と気候科学
地球システム科学
凍り付いた宇宙の研究

背景:

氷河や氷冠の融解は地球の海面上昇に大きく寄与しています
スヴァルバルドの独特の気候のグラデーションは温暖化への氷河の反応を研究するのに理想的な場所です
氷河の質量バランスを理解することは将来の海面の変化を予測するのに不可欠です

研究の目的:

スヴァルバルドの氷河の薄まり率を定量化するために
スヴァルバルドの氷河の気候感受性を決定する
気候変動のシナリオの下でスヴァルバルドの氷河の変化を予測する

主な方法:

歴史的な航空画像 (1936年−1938年) と近代的な高度データを使用した.
氷河の幾何学を再現するために構造から運動のフォトグラメトリーを使用した.
氷河の変化を気候変数と関連付けるために 70年以上の質量バランスパターンを分析した.

主要な成果:

氷河の希薄化率は1936年から2010年までの2倍以上になると予測されています
夏の平均気温の1°C上昇は,面積正常化された質量バランスの−0.28 m/年減少と相関する.
スヴァルバルドの氷河の融解を制御する強い温度依存を特定しました

結論:

スヴァルバルドの氷河は温度上昇に非常に敏感です
スヴァルバルドの氷河の減少が加速する
この研究は,気候モデルと海面上昇予測の改善に不可欠なデータを提供します.

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